Weekly Rate Update - 2/20/2006

After several weeks of trading lower, bonds finally moved upward last week. With the new fed chairman Ben Bernanke reporting that the economy looks stable for the near future, bonds reacted with a rally. Bernanke did indicate that we are in for at least one and possibly two more rate hikes before the Fed takes a break.

In other news for the week, there were huge numbers both in retail sales and housing starts. Retail sales surged 2.3 percent in January, nearly triple the expected increase and the largest gain since May 2004. Construction starts were at a level of 2.276 million (annualized), up 15 percent from December's revised 1.988 million and the most since March 1973. This data is spurring a debate between economists as to whether the housing bubble - which has been reported for nearly 4 years now - is real or just a media myth. Some economists attribute this record housing start number to the warmest January in recorded history. Others dismiss that belief.

Regardless of what the economists say, no one can deny that the media has been playing up the "housing bubble" since early in 2002. Yet, if you had listened to these reports, you would have missed out on some of the highest annual gains in the history of real estate. When will the bubble pop? The first question that needs to be answered is this: Is there a bubble at all? We believe that there are pockets where a bubble does exist. Areas of coastal California, coastal Florida, the Phoenix and Washington DC metro areas come to mind. However, for Atlanta and all of Georgia, there is no bubble. We continue to see appreciation in the 3% to 8% range annually. Slow, but steady gains.

Keep in mind that if these pockets of astronomical returns continue in areas as close to us as Florida, it will become difficult for real estate investors to find a positive cash flow in those areas. When that happens, many will cash out and look for other opportunities - bargains. Atlanta will likely be a prime target and should see some nice gains if this plays out. Do you want to be on the sidelines when this occurs? If you have been waiting for the "bubble" to burst before making your real estate purchase, wait no more……

No Comments

Leave a comment

Name (required)


EMail


Website


Comments

   

 

Category

Archives

Meta

Search